The Instinct Of A Trader And Algorithm Of Trading Robot.
What is more efficient in the financial market – the instinct of a trader or algorithm of trading robot? Financial feasibility – that is the criterion by which the work of the trader and algorithm of trading robot differ.
“Hunting for the market”.
Argued that between knowledge of traders and the results of his work in the market there is no correlation. Like, the lack of trader’s knowledge of economy, mathematics, or technical analysis does not prevent him from succeeding. The trader sees himself in the market as a hunter. He uses only the right tool for the “hunt for the market” – an instinct. Like, just instinct can work in the interpretation of “hunting” called the financial market.
It remains only to find out how effective the instinct of “hunter for the market” is. For this it is required a coefficient of efficiency of this trader’s instinct. It is is rather difficult to do this with precision. But it is possible to make a rough estimate. Years of experience of British bookmakers company IG Index, plc show that 95% of hunters for the market FOREX loose to the market, and only 5% of hunters are successful. Consequently, the approximate efficiency of instinct of the hunter on the market – is 5%. Even compared to a locomotive, it is more than modest.
What hinders an efficient trade?
Two things prevent efficient trade in the financial market. The first one – is a constant desire to take advantage of the instinct of “hunter-market.” The second – is the permanent tries to predict future prices of financial assets.
Nonprofessional investors persist in trying to replace the experience with the hunter instinct. The reason – is greed, which manifests itself in the form of permanent resentment of own income. Instead of thoroughly study the market, the investor relies on the individual characteristics that are supposedly unique to him. The result is the market teaches inexperienced investors more losses.
Making money on the speculation and give price forecasts on financial assets – are not the same thing. There are oscillatory movements of prices with random length on the market. A man cannot predict what prices will be through a fixed period of time. Invest in something that the market will sooner or later grow up – is simply absurd.
To predict the price of financial assets is impossible – this thesis causes a lot of controversy. Most argue from probability theory that the probability (statistical) forecast of prices is possible and necessary.
Stop! An inaccuracy is laid in the original premise. Is it impossible to predict the exact price or just price? Nobody argues that it is impossible to predict accurately the price. What does it mean – to predict accurately? This means that the probability of occurrence of this event is equal. In such a way experts in probability theory treat the need of probabilistic (statistical) prediction. It is argued that any forecast in the financial market – is a probabilistic (statistical) forecast.
As in every other sphere of life foreign exchange market needs some knowledge.
Surely, you can start forex investment and get quite successful in it. But sooner or later the losses will come. This is when you might think “Why did I fail to start with a nice forex trading education?”
This does not imply that after reading even the top materials you will start closing trading positions with huge income, but this knowledge will save you from many dangers. And even if you decide to get the help of a forex managed account service, still you will make a much wiser decision.
And some general tips – today the web technologies give you a truly unique chance to choose exactly what you want for the best price on the market. Strange, but most of the people don’t use this chance. In real life it means that you must use all the tools of today to get the info that you need.
Search Google or other search engines. Visit social networks and have a look on the accounts that are relevant to your topic. Go to the niche forums and join the online discussion. All this will help you to create a true vision of this market. Thus, giving you a real opportunity to make a smart and nicely balanced decision.
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November 1, 2010 | In: Investment