The Disputable Elliott Theory Part 2
Interpretation attempts:
The Elliott theory has endured weight of interpretations about all history of the existence. The most known rewriters of this theory are Robert Prekter and Bill Williams. The theory of Prekter became for a long time classics of the technical analysis. As the basic advantage of this theory should be noticed that on its basis was created program of Elliott Wave Analyzer that extended enough in the technical analysis. It determines waves really very well, what is generally shown in a retrospective. Therefore to it is possible to study with it the wave theory, but not to predict.
As to William’s works, if to isolate from them a certain quintessence, it is possible to specify algorithm of trade consisting of availability conditions in the previous market of 5-wave structure (how to specify – it is written at the Williams books, and in other works under the wave theory of a technique of determination of waves) and a fractal aside, opposite to a dominating direction of these waves, on smaller schedule. In the future Williams doesn’t offer forecasting of wave structure, though it was awaited by many readers.
All the rest in William’s interpretation of the theory of Elliott are the continuous profanation of this and without that the disputable theory, plentifully flavored by various formulations like “surprising oscillator”, “the alligator opens a mouth”, etc. Actually widely advertized fractal geometry is and there is that wave theory of Elliott, according to which any trend consists of five phases.
Hence trends of different scale are similar to each other, as the same fractals. For the sake of justice it is necessary to notice that trading systems under Bill William’s theory turn out quite good. Only for their writing it is not so necessary to read both books – they can be constructed and on standard indicators, such as MACD.
Also Glenn Nily’s interpretation has caused far not unequivocal reaction among technical analysts. Specialists have concerned its works less enthusiastically, than book critics. Most likely it is caused by claims of Nily on next “the bicycle invention” – from the same series, as William’s creativity. Like Williams, Nily, certainly, has thought up the loud name for the theory – NEoWave Theory. Already from one name it is clear that Nili not only was engaged in interpretation of a heritage of Ralf of Nelson Elliott, but also undertook to create something instead of its theory.
Against such separate cases of megalomania which in a science of the technical analysis became a law for a long time already, for benefit of Glenn Nily says that he nevertheless is the trader-expert. And not banal forex trader but the specialist on work with oil contracts. As it is known, casual people don’t get to the oil industry.
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October 5, 2010 | In: Investment