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To the key factors, influencing course EUR/USD concerns the monetary policy of the USA. Tools of monetary policy with which help the central bank can increase or reduce the monetary sentence in the country are:
- Operations in the open market;
- Discount rate regulation;
- Change of level of the reserve requirements.
The board of governors of Federal Reserve System is responsible for a discount rate and the reserve requirements. The federal Committee of the open market is responsible for operations in the open market. Using these three tools, FRS influences size of resources which depositary establishments hold in Federal Reserve Bank and, thus, the interest rate under short-term credits (the federal funds rate) varies.
Operations in the open market are sale and purchase by the central banks of securities for the purpose of effect on weight of an active money and size of credits. Usually operations are spent with short-term governmental securities. Purchase increases nesting of resources in economic system owing to what raises the size of credits. From sale is observed the boomerang effect.
The committee on operations in the open market has responsibility for decision-making on the monetary policy, including official solution under the interest rate, which is accepted 8 times a year. At these meetings the committee considers an economic and financial state, defines the currency policy and estimates long-term objectives of price stability and economic growth.
Interest rate of FRS on federal funds is the rate on which depositary establishments carry out payment under the daily loan. FRS declares interest rate change when wishes to explain a direction of a monetary policy. As a rule, such statement from FRS makes essential impact on the stock market, the share market and the currency markets.
Discount rate is the interest rate on which the Central Bank is ready to give to commercial banks urgent credits. Though the discount rate, by and large, is purely symbolical, its change helps to explain a direction of monetary policy of FRS. The Discount rate always is less, than interest rate of FRS.
3-month’s deposits a Eurodollar: “eurodollar” – the interest rate on 3-month’s dollar deposits in banks out of the USA. So, accounts on the yen, placed outside of Japan, are named “Euroyen”. This rate is the important criterion of definition of interest rates difference that helps to estimate exchange rates of currencies. We will take as an example pair USD/JPY. The big difference of interest rates in favor of deposits «an eurodollar contra euroyens» will promote, most likely, to growth of pair USD/JPY if others stronger do not influence.
The Exchequer has responsibility for definition of the state debts level and decision-making under the financial budget of the country. Thus the Exchequer does not accept involvement in solution of questions of a monetary policy. Statements of representatives of Exchequer concerning dollar can make essential impact on an exchange rate.
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March 8, 2010 | In: Investment