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Reoptimization Of Trading Systems.

Reoptimization Of Trading Systems. :

Have you paid attention to the consistently low results, which give different trading experts? This is the usual example of a well-known idea that no mechanical approach can be successful for a very long period, because the market is changing.

Every successful trader has many periods when his system or method stops working. If the market has changed, you cannot do anything with it. You can only fix the problem and try to change the system. This is the reason for malpractice practice of reoptimization of trading systems. Let’s suggest that you have a great trading system based on three moving averages. When testing on the data of the last few years, it has brought just an incredible amount of profit. Of course, you use different set of optimized moving averages for different markets, because each market has “its face.” You are tuned to the markets and are willing to trade.

But wait! You know that the market is constantly changing to unsettle traders. Therefore it is logical to assume that the right set of moving averages will change over time. Therefore, as part of your approach, you set your frequency of reoptimization of your system of moving averages – and the more frequently – the better.

Let me reveal to you a little secret. Your system will always trade excellently in the past, but will likely yield losses in real life, regardless of how often you reoptimize it. Yes, of course, you will have periods with a decent profit. It will inspire you. However, this market threw you another batch of misinformation to cheer you up and continue in the same erroneous manner. In the long run if we do not take into account the extraordinary good fortune, you will definitely lose.

I do not want to say that the market does not change. It obviously does it. One of my favorite sayings about the market says: “In the future everything will be just like it was just differently.” All I want to say is that any attempt to modify your approach to fit the changes that occurred would be like a dog trying to grasp its tail.

When you reoptimize your system every two weeks, you are making the assumption that within the next two weeks the market will behave as well as the previous two. It’s a nice assumption, but is there any evidence to support it? Studies show just the opposite. The best options for this period are unlikely to match the best parameters of the last period, regardless of what time window you take.

The purpose of this disinformation is to cause the trader in the suspicion to the correct profitable trading techniques and to give them up too early. One of the most expressed traits of professional traders is the commitment to their trading systems for a much longer time than in the unprofitable traders. We all go through periods of losses, regardless of what approach we follow. We are not able to increase our chances of success, changing our approach all the time.

As in any other niche of our life foreign exchange market needs some education.

Of course, you can start forex investment and get quite successful about it. But sooner or later the losses will come. This is when you might think “Why did I fail to start with a good forex trading education?”

That does not mean that after reading even the greatest materials you will start closing trading positions with huge income, but this info will save you from lots of troubles. And even if you decide to get the help of a managed forex account service, still you will make a much wiser decision.

And a final piece of advice – today the online technologies give you a really unique chance to choose exactly what you want for the best price on the market. Funny, but most of the people don’t use this opportunity. In real practice it means that you should use all the tools of today to get the info that you need.

Search Google or other search engines. Visit social networks and check the accounts that are relevant to your topic. Go to the niche forums and participate in the discussion. All this will help you to create a true vision of this market. Thus, giving you a real opportunity to make a smart and nicely balanced decision.

And also sign up to the RSS feed on this blog, because we will everything possible to keep this blog tuned up to the day with new publications about Forex market.

December 7, 2010 | In: Investment

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