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Economic Cycles Of Financial Markets

Economic Cycles Of Financial Markets :

Correctly to understand sense of changes of economic indicators and to estimate their consequences for the markets it is impossible without cyclic behavior of economy. It is known that development of economic processes has cyclic character: growth is necessarily accompanied by recession which restoration and new growth follows. The same change of the concrete indicator can have absolutely different economic sense (so, and financial consequences), depending on at what stage of an economic cycle it is observed. Expectational influence of such change on the markets can be opposite as the financial powers look at state of the economy in these cases and regulating decisions taking into account its cyclic behavior make.

The economic cycle, differently it is named business cycle (Business Cycle), is the natural form of development (growth) of economy.

Considering dynamics of economic development, allocate three basic phases:

- Recession – slowdown in economic activity, falling of production, a level of employment and incomes, differentiate on degree of falling of economy – crisis and depression;
- Restoration (Recovery) – economic activity elevating, market conditions growth, increase of release after its falling which were taking place in recession, to former levels;

- Development (Expansion) – continuation of growth of economy after a restoration stage, as a rule, before achievement of a new maximum of the release surpassing reached in time parameters and on size of differences.

Depending on the nature of indicators and their communication with general economic dynamics, it is accepted to allocate procyclic indicators (which course coincides with a general direction of economic growth – profits of corporations grow on economy elevating), anticyclic (which are directed against general growth – unemployment grows when the economy falls) and acyclic (which behavior changes in a cycle a little).

Short classification on this property of some indicators is resulted below.

- Procyclic:

Strongly correlated;

Cumulative production on economy sectors;

Business profit;

Monetary aggregates;

Speed of circulatuion of money;

Price level;

Short-term interest rates; poorly correlated;

Day-to-day goods;

Agricultural production;

Extraction of natural resources;

Long-term interest rates;

Finished product stocks;

Raw materials inventories and accessories;
Level of unemployment;

Level of bankruptcies;

- The acyclic:

Trading balance.

As indicators are created for revealing and accounting of features of the various parties of economic processes, their behavior also has the specificity. In particular, it is important to know, whether it has the concrete indicator property to advance general dynamics or it is late in comparison with the basic course of an economic cycle. On this sign the most known indicators are classified, as shown below.

- Leading indicators (leading):

Duration of business week;

Number of the new enterprises;

The beginnings of housing constructions;

Stock market indexes;

Profits of corporations;

Money supply change;

Changes in stocks;

- Lagging indicators (lagging);

Number idle long term;

Expenses on the new enterprises and means of production;

Specific salary expenditures;

Average interest rates of commercial banks;

- Conterminous indicators (coinciding);

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT;

Level of unemployment;

Industrial production;

Personal incomes;
The prices of manufacturers;

Official interest rates;

Requests for advertising.

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February 28, 2011 | In: Investment

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