In the USA there is a special non-governmental research organization, National bureau of economic researches (NBER) which is occupied by tracing of economic cycles, determination of their rotary points. It is not such a simple task as can seem as different indicators have the own cycles shifted rather each other in time. To trace on them a global economic cycle and to give its objective characteristics very important as very many participants of economic activities will be guided by this cycle in the business plans. On NBER method, recession (recession) begins with falling of real gross national product within two consecutive quarters successively. But in itself such falling not necessarily means recession, after all indicators often deviate from the basic trend. A considerable quantity of other indicators is involved to generate overall assessment of a tendency which will be accepted by the majority of researchers and experts. Thus even not sizes of economic indicators (gross national product, industrial production, trading balance etc.), and their changes from a month by a month, from a quarter by a quarter, and in longer prospect – year by year have the greatest value.

In these changes influence of an economic situation on results of business, change of moods and activity of manufacturers and consumers is most obviously expressed. Some the convincing general theory of economic cycles doesn’t exist, as there is also a unity of opinions concerning the reasons, no their generating. As the major factors which are at the bottom of economic fluctuations, in various economic theories are considered, for example:

- Pulse influences on economy, economic shocks, somehow – technological shifts, opening of new sources of raw, strong changes of the world prices for raw sources, political shocks;

- Unplanned increases in raw materials inventories, investments into production;
- Labor relations, struggle of labor unions for employment securities and payments.

Clearly that accounting of the similar phenomena can’t be simple business. The main thing that also is well understood for a long time is that cycles are the phenomenon inevitable, generated by the internal reasons which are among the integral motive forces of economic development. Therefore tracing and forecasting of parameters of cyclic development of economy in all civilized countries is carried out as the major state function.

Activity of the Federal Reserve System of the USA on economic activity adjustment is a convincing example of that with inflation it is possible to struggle, and having lowered it to reasonable limits, to transform business cycles into some smooth waves of economic growth. In the USA business cycles and inflation in 60 – weren’t taken 70th years into consideration as consumers and business used more and more borrowed funds for financing of purchasing of houses, cars, consumer durables, for development of production, acquisition of the equipment and stocks. New waves of loans generated growth of expenses (demand for the goods and services) with which production couldn’t keep up, and the prices as a result rose.

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